Iran and the Fourth World War

An article in the Telegraph where it appears that Russia is sounding a mite angy about the possibility of a US missile shield on its borders ;

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/11/15/wrussia115.xml

Russia threatened to site short-range nuclear missiles in a second location on the European Union's border yesterday if the United States refuses to abandon plans to erect a missile defence shield.

In what appeared to be a fresh attempt to divide the West, a senior army general said that Iskander missiles could be deployed in Belarus if US proposals to place 10 interceptor missiles and a radar in Poland and the Czech Republic go ahead.

"Any action meets a counter-action, and this is the case with elements of the US missile defence in Poland and the Czech Republic," said Gen Vladimir Zaritsky, the chief of artillery and rocket forces for Russia's ground troops.

I have some deep suspicions about this 'crisis' for the following reasons ;

1) The reason why Europe is being de-stabilised is simply because the US regards Iran as a potential threat. The US missile shield is 'needed' because if Iran gets nuclear weapons and the missiles to launch them at the US then the US would retaliate. The problem is that Russia has no real need to align itself with Iran. Russia has vast energy reserves and so has Iran. Though Iran could, and has bought, Russian weapons systems the fact that a new embargo by the UN and US has effectively shut this down means there is no real profit in Russia supporting Iran. This makes me think that this 'crisis' is a sham.

The US are saying to Russia that they need the missile shield because Iran will have the bomb. Russia is the main supporter of Iran but it cannot allow the US to plant its missile shield on its borders. Therefore it suggests to me that the US missile shield threat is a ploy to get the Russians to accept the inevitable bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. Russia either accepts the shield or accepts the bombing of Iran.

2) There is no profit in Russia making an enemy of the West. In the next ten years Russia will be the biggest supplier of energy to Western Europe and will conquer us not with its guns or troops but via assymetric warfare using cheque books. Russia will become the dominant power in Europe by using its oil profits to buy up many of the corporations in Europe. We will depend on Russia and geo-politically the alienation of the European nations now, will mean Russian interests will suffer in the future. Therefore I think the reason why Russia is supporting Iran, and challenging the US over the missile Shield is because Putin is playing to the gallery in Russia and appearing the tough guy whilst working with the US to reach this resolution ;

A) Russia will accept secretly that the US and Israel will bomb Iran
B) Then the US will state that it will not build the missile shield in Europe
C) Then Putin will go the Russian public and say ' I will now stand as Prime Minister in the next election' when he retires as the President of Russia and will win as he will be seen as the man who kept the US aggressor from his borders
D)The US and Israel will bomb Iran.

Once the Iranian bomb threat is removed then the need for a missile system is removed.

The alternative is that Putin is prepared to allow Iran to get nuclear weapons to bomb the US, to allow Iran to become the focal point in geo-politics because it is Iran who is the reason why the US is now at loggerheads with Russia and alienate the European nations that he will buy up in the next 20 years with his oil and gas revevenue. If Putin wants WW4 then this is best way to get it.

Putin is not an idiot - therefore this crisis is merely posturing.


http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/10/24/us_missile_defence_concession_a_bit_unimpressive/

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/02/2079650.htm