Wednesday, 1 July 2009

The Green Shoots of Delusion

Warning: Britain faces new recession

Economy set to relapse into dreaded 'double-dip' downturn, say world's central bankers

By Sean O'Grady, Economics Editor

Tuesday, 30 June 2009
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The world's central bankers have warned that the British economy faces relapsing into another recession – the much-feared "double dip" downturn.

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A continuing drought in bank lending, evidenced in the latest figures from the Bank of England, and the threat that spiralling public borrowing will feed through to higher interest rates and inflation, are judged by international economists to be mortal dangers to a sustained recovery.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which comprises the 30 most advanced economies in the world, added to the gloom, saying that Britain remained "deep" in recession and faced a "bleak short-term outlook".

"The recovery is likely to be slow and unemployment is expected to climb significantly," it said, adding that the Treasury could do "considerably more" to fix the public finances.

Both warnings are at odds with recent market optimism and so-called green shoots suggesting that output in the economy may be recovering. But the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which includes the Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, said it feared that the problems of the world's banks are far from fixed and could easily trigger a so-called "double dip" or "W-shaped" downturn. "A major cause for concern is the limited progress in addressing the underlying problems in the financial sector," it said.

"A significant risk is therefore that the current stimulus will lead only to a temporary pick-up in growth, followed by protracted stagnation."

The BIS cautioned that "governments may not have acted quickly enough to remove problem assets from the balance sheets of key banks". It added that financial products should be treated like medicines and sold to consumers only when they are certified safe, to help prevent a repeat of last year's financial meltdown.

Figures from the Bank of England yesterday confirmed that the banks and building societies remain reluctant to lend to any but the most secure of businesses and home buyers. Mortgage approvals barely improved during May, remaining stuck at a little over 43,000 – some way above the nadir of 27,000 last winter, but under half of their normal level. Analysts at Capital Economics said the figures were "consistent with house prices falling at double-digit annual rates".

Detailed data on changes to the money supply indicated that relatively little of the £100bn pumped into the economy by the Bank of England through its policy of "quantitative easing", akin to "printing money", is finding its way as yet into meaningful lending by the banks to small businesses and first-time buyers.

A small improvement in consumer confidence was registered last month, and there is plenty of evidence of more buyer interest at estate agents and of shoppers continuing to shop. However, for as long as the banking system remains reliant on public funding and unwilling to offer credit, little of this still-fragile optimism will be seen in hard purchases of "big ticket" items such as houses, cars and other goods linked to house purchase, such as electrical appliances and furniture.

Figures to be released by the Office for National Statistics are likely to reveal that the downturn in the UK in the first quarter of the year was even more severe than first thought, though most economists think the worst of the slump is over. A CBI survey published yesterday said more than 95 per cent of banks and building societies expected their bad debts to rise over the next few months. Such write-offs will join the existing "toxic assets" on the banks' balance sheets and make them even less willing to take on riskier lending – the much feared "negative feedback loop".

Most embarrassing for ministers is the OECD's "health check" on important public services. The OECD agreed that, since Labour came to power in 1997, health spending has "surged" but "the returns so far appear modest". Ironically, given official enthusiasm for "league tables", the OECD says the UK's economic future is endangered by the inequality of educational achievement – a factor which has left the UK towards the bottom of the league table of advanced economies for social mobility: "International standardised tests show that the UK lags better performing countries significantly."

However, the OECD supports the shift away from targeting: "The focus on raising the school leaving age and meeting performance targets in education may still be distracting attention from the more important goal of raising core literacy and numeracy achievement." It adds: "Adequate provision of public infrastructure should be a priority, particularly in transport where road and airport congestion, and problems in the rail system impede business and constrain productivity."

Ministers have cancelled this year's Comprehensive Spending Review on the grounds that the economic picture is too uncertain and that, after a general election, "tough choices" may become easier to implement. Still, the OECD said it wanted "explicit" detail on spending cuts and tax rises, adding: "Experience in other countries suggests that a focus on expenditure cuts, rather than revenue raising, is associated with more successful consolidations." At the moment, the OECD claims, the Government is not being "ambitious" enough.

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Kent BNP said...

"Delusion"...sums you up you cunt, you are nothing and nobody, you have no influence, no power and no one respects you. Griffin tolerates you but thinks you are a twat. So Mr. Fake Lawyer everyone hates you and thinks you are a fraud , so please please please die of a painful and slow disease which stops you flooding the net with your racist poison and then you one likes you Barnes, no one at all. You are despised by every single BNP member. You daft cunt.

The Chairman said...

Its time your ventures into the sordid twilight world of queers was revealed to the Sunday papers.

Watch this space you queer cunt..... you WILL be exposed

Yours sincerely

Nick Griifin

Shireman said...

LOL You seem to have upset somebody, Lee. No prizes for guessing who.

I certainly don't hate you, and I don't know of any BNP members who do. I won't lie, some see you as an eccentric, and aren't too happy about you appearing on radio shows. However others think you're a real asset to the party.

You have upset the trolls over at NWN, though. That's for sure.

Anonymous said...

I really like Lees Blog as opposed to the bog roll above

The people are ready but are the BNP? said...

The people are ready but are the BNP?

It's time the BNP started outing the not so hidden hand that controls banking and politics in the west.

It is time to educate the masses, if not now, then when?

Lee you have done a view good posts on this front, but no nearly enough and the BNP won't even touch the subject with Nick skirting around the issue.


The big thing is that NO ONE understands why such damaging things have accured in British and American politics from all mainstreme parties. People think it is incompetence and the BNP also play on this, even though they know better.

Yes incompertance from the rank and file politicians who are mere whores anyway, but a skillfull genocide and power grab from those who are really in the driving seat, once the situation along with the facts is laid out in front of the public, they then understand and all the apparent ` madness` and `incompetance` of the main parties all starts to make sense.

It's not rocket science, and the layman can grasp this issue when presented with simple facts.

That is a life changing moment, the second the penny drops and the cloud is lifted from your eyes.

Race is but one element in the big picture and most people see race as rather abstract, it's hard for them to grasp until you understand the political dynamic of race and power.

Playing along with the incompetance game does not work, if it worked the BNP would have been in power a decade ago.

You have to document and present the NWO and it's lkeading players and it's web of connections to the British public, this is not wild theories, this is well documented fact.

Up 'till now Nick has shyed away from the issue for fear of being branded a nutter conspiracy theorist, all the while knowing the truth.

Nick while digging for his leads in Europe may uncover what he is looking for, yet the structure is already there to be revealed to the masses, highlighting individual crooks in the system - the whores will get you nowhere without all the connecting dots.

The main issue will be keeping Nick alive should he get too close to a hot lead, he would be better to uncover the structure which is already documented and then supply additional evidence is he should uncover it.


Because if he documents and exposes the NWO structure now he will be in a far safer position should he later uncover the conecting cons. why because extra suspicion would fall on such structures should anything happen to Nick before any other more specific revelations may come to light.

Forget peak oil, no one gives a crap, you may as well be talking about global warming and all the rest of it for all the public care.

However the impact of the NWO can already be felt and demonstraited.

Perhaps Nick layed low on the subject for fear of waking a NWO hornets nest and wished to try the slowly slowly approach until his power was great enough to spill the beans?

It's not likely to happen that way and now the BNP have 2 MEPs the hornets nest is already well and truly alive and buzzing setting to close the BNP down.

Would it not be harder and more suspicious trying to shut the BNP down if the NWO and it's links were exposed - the more pressure they placed on trying to shut down the BNP the more suspicious people would get.

The BNP say all the other parties are the same but never fully explains why, only that they are - this is NOT good enough.

It's time to move past more than just race, it's time to talk international politics and it's subversive controlling groups.

The people are ready - but are the BNP?

Lastly, Congrats Lee on getting commended by Nick at the victory meeting.

You are one of the freshest and most open minds in nationalsm and it's good to know Nick has faith in you.

Anonymous said...

What a disgusting post by the person at the top, i know that its the sort of post that will be water off a ducks back.
I love your blog Lee makes interesting and very forward and insightful thing, i dont always agree with everything you think and write, but its your opinion its also called freedom of speech, which unfortunately if certain twats have their way it'll be a thing of the past. Keep up the good work Lee decent people within the BNP salute you.