The Truth on Race Crimes in the UK

We have all seen in the media over recent days how statistics published by the Ministry of Justice 'prove' racism in the country is on the rise - this is true, but as usual the media have not clarified what the nature of that rise in racism is.

We have asked one of the countries top experts on statistical analysis to research the statistics published by the Ministry of Jutice and the results are published below.

Those who want a full copy of the report can ask me for a copy via the comments section and I will send it as a full PDF.

A copy of the report is also being sent to the Ministry of Justice and Ministry of Equality.

Excerpts are published here ;


A Preliminary Analysis of the Ministry of Justice Document:

'Statistics on Race and the Criminal Justice System - 2006'

Tony Shell

Summary of Findings

A preliminary analysis of official crime data shows:

 Violence against the person is 5 times more prevalent in the
black community, than in the white community.

 Drugs offences are 16 times more prevalent in the black
community, and 3 times more prevalent in the Asian community, than in the white community.

 Robbery is over 9 times more prevalent in the black community, than in the white community.

 Committing homicide is 6 times more prevalent in the black community, and twice as prevalent in the Asian community, than it is in the white community.

 The homicidal killing of white people is 90 times more
prevalent in the black community, than the homicidal killing of black people in the white community.

 The homicidal killing of white people is 30 times more prevalent in the Asian community, than the homicidal killing of Asian people in the white community.

 The number of white victims of interracial homicide is approximately 40 times greater than expected, when compared to the number of such victims in the minority (BME)community.

 The white community suffers more victims of interracial and racially motivated homicide than all of the minority (BME)communities put together – despite the BME communities being less than 10 per cent of the total population.

 The number of white victims of racially motivated homicide is approximately 50 times greater than expected, when compared to the number of such victims in the minority (BME)community

This study has been prepared under the auspices of DarkLake Synectics* – an independent, non-political research organisation. This organisation has a particular interest in the development of social systems: of structures of complex social groups; emergent organisational behaviour (culture); co-evolutionary 'niche' development; cultural kinetics; social stability and of ethnic and cultural identity. The research concentrates on obtaining an understanding of the development and behaviours of highly complex social, economic and cultural groups.

* sin-ek'tiks, n. the study of processes leading to invention, with the end aim of solving practical problems, esp. by a synectics group, a miscellaneous group of people of imagination and ability but varied interests. [Chambers Twentieth Century Dictionary]

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Contents

Contents 2

Summary Analysis 3

Criminal Susceptibility 3

Interracial and Racially Motivated Crime 3

The Analytical Model 5

Model Specification [Data] 5

Model Validation 6

Model Implementation 6

Data Sources 6

Use of Data (Selection Basis) 6

Statistical Significance 6

Nota Bene 6

Computational Results 7

Crime - General 7

Table 1 Prison Population for England and Wales, 2006 7

Interracial Homicide – Suspects and Victims 8

Table 2 Interracial Homicide – Suspects and Victims 8

Racially Motivated Homicide – Offenders and Victims 9

Table 3 Racially Motivated Homicide – Offenders and Victims 9

References 10

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Summary Analysis

It is important that these studies into criminal susceptibility and interracial/racist crime should be an on-going process. Therefore as new criminal data becomes available, then new calculations will be performed in order to both improve the accuracy of the analysis, and to detect long-term trends with regard to experiences of crime within, and between, different ethnic communities. This interim report is a part of that process.

This analysis is in two parts: firstly an examination of criminal susceptibility; and secondly an examination of interracial and racist crime. In each case the results of the modelling process are evaluated, together with comments on general trends and patterns of (criminal) behaviour.

Criminal Susceptibility

Both the criminal categories chosen (violence against the person, sexual offences, robbery, drugs offences, burglary) and the ethnic/racial groupings (white, black, Asian, other) are, of course, somewhat arbitrary.

However, the reasons for these choices are based on matters of practicability of study and of social relevance.

They provide the means for making important observations on the state of our communities, and for making insightful comment and effective recommendations with regard to social/political policy.

The most obvious observation to make is the consistency of the results with that of earlier analysis covering the period from 1999 to 2005 – see [1]. And as seen from previous analysis, the observed differences in observed criminal behaviour are very noticeable. These are not differences of a few percent but 'many-fold' differences in rates of offence. Examples are as follows:

1) violence against the person is 5 times more prevalent in the black community, than in the white

community;

2) drugs offences are 16 times more prevalent in the black community, and 3 times more prevalent in the

Asian community, than in the white community;

3) robbery is over 9 times more prevalent in the black community, than in the white community.

Again, we find there is also little evidence of any long-term trends in these figures, despite social and

demographic changes of this period under investigation.

Interracial and Racially Motivated Crime

This (second) part of the study focused on the most serious forms of criminal activity – of homicide. The reason for this is twofold:

(1) that this particular crime has the most profound effect on individuals and the community;

and

(2) that much of current legislation and much of statutory requirements and operational regulations for the law enforcement agencies have been formed as a result of perceptions regarding the nature of racist homicide (re. the murder of Stephen Lawrence in 1993, and the Macpherson Inquiry Report of 1999 on 'institutional racism' within the police service).

Again we find it to be overwhelmingly the white community that suffers most from interracial and racially motivated homicide. More white people are killed by members of the ethnic minority community than vice versa .

This is despite there being approximately ten time more white people than there are people from the

minority (BME) communities. A total of 212 white people are recorded as victims of interracial homicide, as against a total of 144 victims in the BME communities. Similarly, a total of 14 white people are recorded as victims of racially motivated homicide, as against 9 victims in the BME communities.

On analysis we find:

1) committing homicide is 6 times more prevalent in the black community, and twice as prevalent in the Asian community, than it is in the white community;

2) the homicidal killing of white people is 90 times more prevalent in the black community, than is the homicidal killing of black people in the white community;

3) the homicidal killing of white people is 30 times more prevalent in the Asian community, than is the homicidal killing of Asian people in the white community;

4) the number of white victims of interracial homicide is approximately 40 times greater than expected,when compared to the number of such victims in the minority (BME) community.

A similar pattern of behaviour emerges when we analyse the criminal data relating to racially motivated homicide. On analysis we find:

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1) the white community suffers more victims of racially motivated homicide than all of the minority (BME) groups put together – despite the BME communities being less than 10 per cent of the total population;

2) the number of white victims of racist homicide is approximately 50 times greater than expected, when compared to the number of victims of racist homicide in the minority (BME) community.

Again, the most worrying aspect of this particular part of the analysis is that there are indications (based on comparisons of interracial and racially motivated homicide) that racially motivated murder of members of the white community are being significantly under-reported.