Peak Oil Is Here !

Peak Oil is the end of advanced human civilisations.


Human progress is merely a manifestation of the amount of energy available to any given society at any given point in history.

The more energy a human society unlocks from the environment, the higher the level of its civilisation and culture.

All human progress is an aspect of the energy capture process, politics merely a manifestation of who that energy is used and social progress merely the ability of any society to use that energy for the benefit of society.

The billions of dollars printed by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England as 'quantative easing' has no value other than in relation to future economic expansion.

Future economic expansion is how the value of the money is secured - in that the money is loaned today to us on the basis that tomorrow economic expansion will repay that debt.

Without the money being secured in relation to future economic expansion - all we have are worthless bits of paper that add inflationary pressure on an already unstable economic system.

But all economic expansion is based on cheap oil.

Without cheap oil, then economic expansion cannot occur.

Without economic expansion then the money becomes worthless.

That is where we are today if the truth about Peak Oil already being here is true as stated in the article below.

The money injected into the global economy by the US is now a debt that can never be repaid.

America is now the New Rome, an empire about to collapse.

At the same time as future economic expansion has been ruled out, the dollar is about to be replaced by a new global currency for use in oil bourse trading.

The Petro-Dollar Recycling system is how the US economy has been able to grow even whilst in debt, for in effect the dollar is the one currency that every nation has to use to buy the oil that keeps it alive.

Replace the dollar and you destroy the petro-dollar recycling system.

In effect this will destroy the US economy overnight - and at the same time destroy the value of all dollar based foreign reserves.

The rise in the price of gold is proof that this is already happening.

When the dollar goes, the pound goes and then global trade will be based on barter and gold.

This process will usher in a re-structuring that will bring chaos to the planet.

The most frightening scenario of all is the Olduvai-Gorge Theory ;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory


This is what we face if we are in the Peak already.

Want to know what the world will look like in 30 years if we are - imagine a cross between the Balkans in the 1990's, Iraq today and Mad Max.



* 1979: US per capita energy use peaked; still floundering on a plateau in 2006, but ready to fall precipitously (‘cliff’) at any time
* 2005: World crude oil probably peaked; still on an undulating plateau in 2007; starts off the ‘cliff’ ~2010-2012 or before
* 2005: World food production (grains) peaked
* 2008 (or sooner): World Natural Gas peaks
* 2010 (or sooner): Natural Gas ‘cliff’ arrives
* 2012 (or sooner): US electricity blackouts and brownouts become the norm
* 2012: US potable, available water peak and ‘cliff’; shortages and waterborne diseases increase
* 2015: US Health Care System in complete chaos, breakdown and failure; sanitation, drugs, return of communicable diseases, poorer nutrition etc.
* 2015: World “Dieoff” begins in earnest; largely starvation, disease and poor healthcare caused
* 2030: US per-capita energy consumption hits the “30% mark-AFTER peak”, equaling year 1930 lifestyles again (probably much sooner than 2030)

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global food production will exceed population growth between today and 2030
















http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/09/peak-oil-international-energy-agency


The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.
'There's suspicion the IEA has been influenced by the US' Link to this audio

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."

The British government, among others, always uses the IEA statistics rather than any of its own to argue that there is little threat to long-term oil supplies.

The IEA said tonight that peak oil critics had often wrongly questioned the accuracy of its figures. A spokesman said it was unable to comment ahead of the 2009 report being released tomorrow.

John Hemming, the MP who chairs the all-party parliamentary group on peak oil and gas, said the revelations confirmed his suspicions that the IEA underplayed how quickly the world was running out and this had profound implications for British government energy policy.

He said he had also been contacted by some IEA officials unhappy with its lack of independent scepticism over predictions. "Reliance on IEA reports has been used to justify claims that oil and gas supplies will not peak before 2030. It is clear now that this will not be the case and the IEA figures cannot be relied on," said Hemming.

"This all gives an importance to the Copenhagen [climate change] talks and an urgent need for the UK to move faster towards a more sustainable [lower carbon] economy if it is to avoid severe economic dislocation," he added.

The IEA was established in 1974 after the oil crisis in an attempt to try to safeguard energy supplies to the west. The World Energy Outlook is produced annually under the control of the IEA's chief economist, Fatih Birol, who has defended the projections from earlier outside attack. Peak oil critics have often questioned the IEA figures.

But now IEA sources who have contacted the Guardian say that Birol has increasingly been facing questions about the figures inside the organisation.

Matt Simmons, a respected oil industry expert, has long questioned the decline rates and oil statistics provided by Saudi Arabia on its own fields. He has raised questions about whether peak oil is much closer than many have accepted.

A report by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) last month said worldwide production of conventionally extracted oil could "peak" and go into terminal decline before 2020 – but that the government was not facing up to the risk. Steve Sorrell, chief author of the report, said forecasts suggesting oil production will not peak before 2030 were "at best optimistic and at worst implausible".

But as far back as 2004 there have been people making similar warnings. Colin Campbell, a former executive with Total of France told a conference: "If the real [oil reserve] figures were to come out there would be panic on the stock markets … in the end that would suit no one."