Monday, 9 November 2009
Oil and The Great Collapse
In recent years a challenge to classic Darwinian theory has come via the idea of Punctuated Equilibrium.
Punctuated equilibrium is a theory in evolutionary biology which proposes that most sexually reproducing species will experience little evolutionary change for most of their geological history (in an extended state called stasis). When evolution occurs, it is localized in rare, rapid events of branching speciation (called cladogenesis).
Cladogenesis is simply the process by which species split into two distinct species, rather than one species gradually transforming into another. Thus, "punctuated equilibria is a model for discontinuous tempos of change (in) the process of speciation and the deployment of species in geological time."
Punctuated equilibrium is commonly contrasted against the theory of phyletic gradualism, which states that evolution generally occurs uniformly and by the steady and gradual transformation of whole lineages (anagenesis). In this view, evolution is seen as generally smooth and continuous.
This theory demolishes the idea of gradual evolution and instead proposes a theory based on sudden evolutionary spurts, when a species suddenly undergoes change into a new species and is then replaced by this whole new species.
Incremental change leads to qualitative change, in a moment of accelerated Punctuated Equilibrium.
The same thing occurs in politics.
Continuing on from De Benoist and his Convergence of Catastrophies theory we see that a system, such as a political system, undergoes a negative feedback loop.
A negative feedback loop is a feedback that reduces the output of a system.
In other words a society is no longer undergoing progressive social evolution. More and more energy and money is being spent on sustaining the present social level than could be gained from social expansion.
In other words, the system is now so dysfunctional that even if the system expanded to achieve its most efficient expansion capacity, that this rate of expansion would still not match the rate of internal social collapse.
Eg the economy could at its very best only expand by 4 % per annum but the social costs of sustaining the present levels of social complexity are deficit debts of around 5 % per annum.
In other words, all new growth goes on cutting old debts.
Each year the system undergoes reversion, and cuts its levels of social progress eg more people lose their jobs, wages are cut, unemployment rises, benefit cuts are imposed etc etc.
Society has entered a negative feedback loop.
The ONLY way that societies save themselves from negative feedback loops is by injections of new energy.
Human progress is not measured by the GDP but by GEP - the Gross Energy Product of a nation.
Any nation that produces more energy by itself than it requires for its own internal needs, is an nation in an ‘ Energy Credit’ situation - and therefore it is a nation that is capable of social and economic progress.
Any nation that produces less than it needs in energy terms is in Energy Deficit and is incapable of social and economic progress.
For example, because of North Sea oil depletion in 2007 the UK is now a net importer of energy.
As a result of that situation the British Army were sent to Iraq to secure Iraqi oil for the US and into Afghanistan to secure the oil and gas pipelines that feed the West its gas and oil.
The decision by Winston Churchill as First Lord of The Admiralty in 1912 to switch from coal to oil fired engines for British battleships was the most important decision of the 20th century for Britain and the whole politics of the 20th century.
Not only did this open up the Empire, as now Royal Navy ships could be used to protect shipping, it gave birth to the geo-politics of Oil Imperialism. Tanks, planes and lorries could be used to assert British control over conquered territory.
Because the Royal Navy now required oil, the national security interests of Britain were now projected onto a global stage so as to secure that oil. The oil company Anglo-Persian was taken into part ownership by the British government and a 20 year contract guaranteed the oil for the expansion of the Royal Navy.
In 1918, a few days after the armistice was signed, at a Inter-Allied Petroleum Conference dinner Lord Curzon stated that, “The allied cause had floated to victory upon a wave of oil “.
World War 2 was also an energy war, as Hitlers aim for expanding into the East and into Russia was to secure access to oil supplies in the Baku oil fields of central Asia and further on and into Iraq. Blitzkreig was run on oil. Hitler realised that reliance on coal for transportation was what had lost Germany the First World War.
Japan also invaded the Dutch East Indies to secure their oil supplies and attacked Pearl Harbour in order to disable the US fleet and prevent it taking the oil wells back.
The outcome of World War 2 was decided before the first shot was fired, for the allies controlled 86 % of the worlds oil supply at that time.
The Iraq War and Afghanistan War are simply products of the same, inexorable logic of energy dependency.
Whoever controls the worlds oil supply, controls the world.
The world though is about to enter the era of Peak Oil.
This will cause a massive reduction in social complexity and social progress.
The present political paradigms are inherently unable to deal with the reality of the coming storm.
They are ideological products of the 19th century and are obsolete as regards solutions to the problems of the 21st century.
The next stage in the social and political evolution of Britain is into a National Community
The present political system is now stuck in a negative feedback loop that it cannot escape.
This means at some point the entire system will crash.
The transition from the dollar being the global banking reserve currency and the creation of a new oil bourse and petro-dollar recycling system based on the Euro as opposed to the dollar, means the US Imperium will collapse.
The petro-dollar recycling system is the basis of the Federal Reserve Fiat Banking system, for the ’value’ of the dollars the Federal Reserves prints is based solely on the US being able to dominate the global oil supply and the global oil trading system.
Both are under attack.
Unfortunately for the US and Britain the costs of securing the Iraqi oil, and its associated infrastructure eg Afghanistan, is such that it is draining social complexity and reducing social progress.
Therefore the system will collapse.
Only one ideology will save this nation from The Great Collapse that is coming to the world, a collapse resulting in famines, wars, eco-conflicts, resource wars and mass terrorism.
That is Nationalism.
Therefore the challenge is to prepare for the collapse.
When the collapse begins it will be sudden.
Our challenge is to prepare for power, long before the lights go out.