Cognitive decline, the result of third world immigration, differential fecundity and gene flow, will mark the end of Western ascendancy. Described herein is the path to collapse and the improbable circumstances surrounding its discovery.
Prodigy's Laws of Immigration.
1. A Western country may be approximated as a nation composed of two distinct populations, one indigenous, the other third-world, differing in mean IQ by approximately one standard deviation.
2. In standard deviation units, a Western country with a third-world population fraction, f, has a mean IQ of -f
3. Per capita GDP, declines linearly with the third-world immigrant population fraction.
4. Each percentage point increase in the third-world immigrant population, will eventually cause the per capita GDP of a Western nation to drop by approximately 0.76 percent of its zero-immigrant value
1) By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined, because of third-world immigration, to 86.8% of its 2004 value.
2) Correspondingly, from the Second Law, during this time the US mean IQ will have dropped by about 2 IQ points.
He understands that a country's economic success is causally connected to the intelligence of its people; that a nation of dimwits cannot compete with a nation of philosophers; and that between the simpleton and the savant lies a distribution of intellect that differs among peoples. Fifo knows that immigration from the third world will move the center of gravity of brainpower down the IQ spectrum, and in the long run, through influx, fecundity and gene flow, will have a lasting effect.
"We do not want Fifo to get lost in the details of smart fraction theory. Therefore, we should make some qualitative points. Fifo should understand that the theory is based on the idea that a country's economic success is limited by the cognitive ability of its workforce. Bookkeepers, credit clerks, lab techs, salesmen, secretaries, sales account executives, administrative assistants, store managers etc. are the folks who, in a market economy, do the heavy lifting. They are not rocket scientists, but they do fall on the right side of the bell curve. They form what I call a nation's 'smart fraction.' When their supply is exhausted, economic growth shuts down. The fundamental assertion of smart fraction theory is that per capita GDP is proportional to the size of a country's smart fraction, a proposition established empirically in The Smart Fraction Theory of IQ and the Wealth of Nations and also in Smart Fraction Theory II: Why Asians Lag, where it was determined that a verbal IQ of about 106 sets the lower bound of the smart fraction.
"Cognitive differences between groups are sometimes difficult to detect. In fact, in the ordinary exchanges of life, a full standard deviation could easily go undetected. Suppose, as reported by Lynn and Vanhanen in IQ and the Wealth of Nations, the mean IQ of Belgians is one standard deviation greater than that of Moroccans. If we randomly select one Moroccan and one Belgian, the Moroccan will be the smarter in about one of four trials. Such an inherent cognitive difference might well be overlooked in social settings where charm, appearance and social grace often control human interaction. In the proper context, however, even small cognitive gaps will have profound effects. Because of the one SD difference, less than 9 percent of Moroccans can do smart-fraction work, compared to 36 percent of Belgians. Viewed in this way it is easy to understand the different living standards of the two peoples."
Jan te Nijenhuis and Henk van der Flier, "Group differences in mean intelligence for the Dutch and Third World immigrants," Journal of Biosocial Science, 33 (2001), 469-475.
Evidence from eleven samples indicates that the mean IQ of third world immigrants in the Netherlands is lower than the Dutch mean by approximately one standard deviation for Surinamese and Antilleans, and by approximately one and a half standard deviations for Turks and Moroccans. Since IQ tests provide the best prediction of success in school and organizations, it could be that the immigrants' lower mean IQ is an important factor in their low status on the Dutch labour market. The IQs of second-generation immigrants are rising.
"The studies all find significant differences between ethnic Dutch and immigrant populations," Mentor explained. "Children born in the Netherlands of Surinamese and Antillean immigrants have IQs about 0.8 standard deviations below native Dutch children. Children born in the Netherlands of Turkish and Moroccan immigrants have IQs even more at odds with their Dutch counterparts with mean IQs 1.2 and 1.4 standard deviations below native Dutch children, respectively. Will this be enough information for you, Prodigy?"
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