Wednesday 15 February 2012


Let's assume that sections of the military and security apparatus in Iran are responsible for the string of bombings in Georgia, Thailand and India. What would be the motive? The argument that Iran is retaliating for the murder of five civilian nuclear scientists in Iran is not plausible. If Iran wanted to target Israeli interests, it has other means at its disposal. It is hard to imagine that the Iranian government would send Iranian operatives to friendly countries, completely equipped with Iranian money and passports – making the case against them as obvious as possible.

If the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are as professional, highly trained and politically savvy as we have been told repeatedly by Israeli politicians themselves, if they have successfully trained and equipped the cadres of Hezbollah and other movements with paramilitary wings in the region, then why would they launch such a clumsy and self-defeating operation?

And why India, Georgia and Thailand, three countries that Iran has had cordial relations with during a period when Iran is facing increasing sanctions spearheaded by the United States? A few days ago, India agreed a rupee-based oil and gas deal with Iran and resisted US pressures to join the western boycott of the Iranian energy sector. As a net importer of 12% of Iranian oil, India's total trade with Iran amounted to $13.67bn in 2010-2011. What would be the motive for damaging relations with one of Iran's major trading partners and regional heavyweights?

For Iran it doesn't make sense to risk alienating India by launching an assassination attempt in the capital of the country. Similarly, Iran has good economic and political relations with Georgia and Thailand. Why would the leadership in Tehran risk a major crisis with these countries during this sensitive period when IAEA inspectors are moving in and out of Iran to investigate the country's nuclear programme?

The true answer is that at this stage no one knows for sure who is behind the attacks. There have been news reports that the security agencies in India are examining the similarities between the explosion in Delhi and the Jama Masjid shooting and blast in 2010 when similar methods were used. According to these reports, the culprits could be the so-called Indian Mujahideen, which is unrelated to Iran and which is opposed to India's relations with Israel. There are several other such groups that support the Palestinian cause and that have targeted India before.

It is politics that will prevail over the truth in this case; the Netanyahu administration will attempt to exploit the situation in order to make the case for increasing sanctions against Iran. Undoubtedly, it will attempt to derail Iranian-Indian relations, which has been a primary objective of the administration's grand strategy to isolate Iran. For the Netanyahu administration, the culprit of these attacks has to be the Iranian government, irrespective of the truth, because it is politically expedient to represent the country as an existential threat in order to hype up the nuclear issue and to divert attention away from the Palestinian question. Certainly, on the fringes of the Israeli right wing the drumbeats for war will beat louder.

The Iranian government, on the other hand, will continue to deny any involvement in order to ward off a diplomatic fallout. Iran is not interested in any military confrontation. But at the same time Israel is a convenient bogeyman for Iran's own right wing. Cyclical, confined confrontation with Israel is politically useful in order to foster support for the country's policies, both domestically and in the wider Arab and Islamic world. Finally, the international community, including the Obama administration, is likely to contain the repercussions of what happened in order to give diplomacy a chance, and to cool down the hawks in Tel Aviv. We are in the middle of the realm of politics then, not the truth.

Apart from a tiny minority that is tied to the military industrial complex, no one really has a penchant for yet another disastrous war in the Islamic world. One thing is certain, however. If the current cold war between Israel and Iran is not managed diplomatically sooner rather than later, the tensions will continue to rise with potentially devastating consequences for Israelis and Iranians alike.

Policies of terror and intimidation yield wars; diplomacy and dialogue yield peace and stability. It is time that this fundamental logic of international politics is enforced in west Asia and north Africa. To that end, the case for reconciliation has to be made continuously and emphatically, especially during periods of massive rage and trepidation. We are exactly at such a decisive juncture. It is all the more imperative then that intellectual acumen and analytical sobriety prevail over the resurgent pro-war lobby.

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Anonymous said...

Israel is using the old age tactic of my enemies enemy is my friend.

In this case using willing soldiers from the Iranian MEK, a hardline Islamist militant group intent on taking out the current Iranian regime and replacing it. Israel training MEK terrorists within Israel to fight the Iranian regime. It's a win win situation. MEK help Israel create a climate of fear and support for a war with Iran. The Iranian regime gets wiped out by the USA and Israel and chaos consumes the country with the Islamists winning and taking control of a destroyed nation. Israel wins as they are faced with a toothless Iran with a non nuclear capability.
Get ready for a big false flag attack in the West, that is my only concern. Iran at this point has no intention of launching these amateur attacks as their main concern right now is to build a nuclear deterrence and continue funding that deterrence with trade with friendly nations, including Iran and Thailand.
Go research, I'm sure you're more well read than most of us. The attacks carried out in India were the same tactics used by the Israeli Mossad trained MEK, motorbikes for the quick getaway and magnetic bombs attached to moving vehicles.
The MSM are commenting on the similarities, NPR today said the tactics and operations seemed "linked".
For the people that say thta Israel could never bomb their own, just look at factual events in recent history. The Egyptian Suez manufactured crisis and a false bomb attack written in ex CIA Baer's book, carried out by the CIA bombing their own embassy making sure that there would be no US casualties.

Interesting times we live in.

Anonymous said...

This could also be members of an Iranian dissident group who would love nothing better than to see the Iranian regime taken out by the USA and Israel so are fomenting trouble between the two countries. Either Dissidents inside Iran or based abroad.
either way the tactics are similar to Iranian MEK terrorists trained by Mossad.
A lot is being made on the amateurish way the guy blew his legs off, shit happens in war, the Iranian assassin was cornered and was being rushed by armed security, he panicked and randomly threw the grenade. Sounds par the norm in combat situations.
One could argue that some British troops in Afghanistan are amateurish, as was the recent case of the young man who accidentally shot his friend in the chest whilst erecting a flag post.

Anonymous said...

And now Singapore is next on the list dealing with Iranian assassins of Israeli ministers.

funny how all these assassination attempts are happening within pro Iran friendly countries?